Cy Young Award Projections
Projection System
About the Cy Young Award Projections:
These Cy Young Award Projections utilize a simple model created by Tangotiger. The original Cy Young Points model predicts the top two vote getters with high accuracy through 2020. The FIP Adjusted model may be a better predictor of more recent voting behavior. (The report is limited to pitchers with at least 50 projected IP.)
- Cy Young Points (CYP): IP/2 - ER + SO/10 + W
- FIP Adjusted Cy Young Points (FIP CYP): (IP/2 - ER) + (IP/2 - FIP Runs) + SO/10 + W
Data Export [Members Only]
American League
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season Stats | Projected Stats | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
| 1 | Tarik Skubal | 36.1 | 4 | 0 | 29.7% | 4.3% | 1.74 | 2.17 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 19.2 | 28.6 | 165.1 | 12 | 7 | 28.3% | 5.7% | 2.94 | 2.82 | 4.3 | 3.9 | 59.4 | 90.2 |
| 2 | Luis Castillo | 41.1 | 3 | 4 | 28.7% | 4.7% | 3.50 | 2.92 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 12.5 | 19.7 | 198.1 | 14 | 12 | 26.4% | 6.5% | 3.41 | 3.28 | 4.0 | 3.1 | 59.7 | 86.6 |
| 3 | Corbin Burnes | 41.0 | 3 | 1 | 25.8% | 5.7% | 2.63 | 3.70 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 15.6 | 19.3 | 200.0 | 13 | 8 | 26.1% | 7.0% | 3.37 | 3.46 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 59.3 | 82.4 |
| 4 | George Kirby | 32.0 | 3 | 2 | 28.4% | 3.0% | 4.21 | 2.05 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 7.8 | 16.6 | 185.0 | 14 | 10 | 24.3% | 3.8% | 3.55 | 3.07 | 4.1 | 2.6 | 51.9 | 81.4 |
| 5 | Logan Gilbert | 40.0 | 2 | 0 | 29.3% | 6.0% | 2.03 | 3.24 | 0.8 | 1.6 | 17.4 | 23.0 | 195.0 | 11 | 8 | 25.0% | 6.1% | 3.28 | 3.51 | 3.0 | 3.6 | 57.3 | 78.8 |
| 6 | Framber Valdez | 17.0 | 1 | 0 | 23.5% | 8.8% | 2.63 | 2.67 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 6.2 | 9.6 | 166.0 | 12 | 6 | 23.0% | 8.1% | 3.25 | 3.37 | 2.9 | 3.3 | 51.0 | 71.8 |
| 7 | Joe Ryan | 34.1 | 1 | 1 | 29.5% | 3.6% | 3.42 | 2.79 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 9.2 | 15.7 | 177.1 | 10 | 9 | 27.7% | 5.7% | 3.66 | 3.39 | 3.4 | 2.3 | 46.7 | 68.6 |
| 8 | Pablo López | 31.1 | 2 | 2 | 29.4% | 5.6% | 4.90 | 3.94 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 4.3 | 6.2 | 185.1 | 11 | 10 | 27.5% | 6.3% | 3.79 | 3.46 | 3.3 | 2.4 | 46.5 | 68.0 |
| 9 | Zach Eflin | 41.0 | 1 | 4 | 21.1% | 2.3% | 4.17 | 3.65 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 6.1 | 10.0 | 184.0 | 11 | 11 | 22.7% | 3.6% | 3.67 | 3.41 | 3.1 | 2.3 | 45.2 | 67.4 |
| 10 | Cole Ragans | 36.1 | 2 | 2 | 28.9% | 8.2% | 3.48 | 2.12 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 10.7 | 20.3 | 167.1 | 10 | 9 | 26.0% | 9.1% | 3.66 | 3.33 | 3.3 | 3.0 | 44.2 | 65.9 |
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season Stats | Projected Stats | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
| 1 | Tarik Skubal | 36.1 | 4 | 0 | 29.7% | 4.3% | 1.74 | 2.17 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 19.2 | 28.6 | 165.1 | 12 | 7 | 28.3% | 5.7% | 2.94 | 2.82 | 4.3 | 3.9 | 59.4 | 90.2 |
| 2 | Luis Castillo | 41.1 | 3 | 4 | 28.7% | 4.7% | 3.50 | 2.92 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 12.5 | 19.7 | 198.1 | 14 | 12 | 26.4% | 6.5% | 3.41 | 3.28 | 4.0 | 3.1 | 59.7 | 86.6 |
| 3 | Corbin Burnes | 41.0 | 3 | 1 | 25.8% | 5.7% | 2.63 | 3.70 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 15.6 | 19.3 | 200.0 | 13 | 8 | 26.1% | 7.0% | 3.37 | 3.46 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 59.3 | 82.4 |
| 4 | George Kirby | 32.0 | 3 | 2 | 28.4% | 3.0% | 4.21 | 2.05 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 7.8 | 16.6 | 185.0 | 14 | 10 | 24.3% | 3.8% | 3.55 | 3.07 | 4.1 | 2.6 | 51.9 | 81.4 |
| 5 | Logan Gilbert | 40.0 | 2 | 0 | 29.3% | 6.0% | 2.03 | 3.24 | 0.8 | 1.6 | 17.4 | 23.0 | 195.0 | 11 | 8 | 25.0% | 6.1% | 3.28 | 3.51 | 3.0 | 3.6 | 57.3 | 78.8 |
| 6 | Framber Valdez | 17.0 | 1 | 0 | 23.5% | 8.8% | 2.63 | 2.67 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 6.2 | 9.6 | 166.0 | 12 | 6 | 23.0% | 8.1% | 3.25 | 3.37 | 2.9 | 3.3 | 51.0 | 71.8 |
| 7 | Joe Ryan | 34.1 | 1 | 1 | 29.5% | 3.6% | 3.42 | 2.79 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 9.2 | 15.7 | 177.1 | 10 | 9 | 27.7% | 5.7% | 3.66 | 3.39 | 3.4 | 2.3 | 46.7 | 68.6 |
| 8 | Pablo López | 31.1 | 2 | 2 | 29.4% | 5.6% | 4.90 | 3.94 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 4.3 | 6.2 | 185.1 | 11 | 10 | 27.5% | 6.3% | 3.79 | 3.46 | 3.3 | 2.4 | 46.5 | 68.0 |
| 9 | Zach Eflin | 41.0 | 1 | 4 | 21.1% | 2.3% | 4.17 | 3.65 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 6.1 | 10.0 | 184.0 | 11 | 11 | 22.7% | 3.6% | 3.67 | 3.41 | 3.1 | 2.3 | 45.2 | 67.4 |
| 10 | Cole Ragans | 36.1 | 2 | 2 | 28.9% | 8.2% | 3.48 | 2.12 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 10.7 | 20.3 | 167.1 | 10 | 9 | 26.0% | 9.1% | 3.66 | 3.33 | 3.3 | 3.0 | 44.2 | 65.9 |
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National League
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season Stats | Projected Stats | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
| 1 | Zack Wheeler | 42.0 | 3 | 3 | 30.6% | 7.1% | 1.92 | 2.59 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 20.2 | 29.2 | 199.0 | 14 | 10 | 26.2% | 6.5% | 3.12 | 3.16 | 5.1 | 4.9 | 65.9 | 95.5 |
| 2 | Logan Webb | 42.0 | 3 | 2 | 17.1% | 5.7% | 2.99 | 2.80 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 13.0 | 21.0 | 205.0 | 14 | 10 | 19.8% | 5.4% | 3.33 | 3.15 | 3.8 | 4.2 | 57.4 | 88.2 |
| 3 | Tyler Glasnow | 43.0 | 5 | 1 | 31.5% | 7.1% | 2.72 | 2.72 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 18.8 | 27.3 | 168.0 | 15 | 6 | 31.1% | 7.5% | 3.21 | 3.11 | 3.8 | 4.0 | 60.2 | 86.2 |
| 4 | Shota Imanaga | 34.1 | 5 | 0 | 26.5% | 3.0% | 0.79 | 2.20 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 22.6 | 31.3 | 171.1 | 14 | 7 | 25.5% | 5.7% | 3.05 | 3.20 | 3.9 | 4.5 | 59.5 | 84.2 |
| 5 | Yoshinobu Yamamoto | 34.0 | 3 | 1 | 30.0% | 5.7% | 2.91 | 2.61 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 13.2 | 20.3 | 176.0 | 14 | 7 | 27.0% | 5.9% | 3.48 | 3.31 | 3.6 | 3.3 | 53.3 | 76.5 |
| 6 | Dylan Cease | 35.1 | 3 | 2 | 28.8% | 10.1% | 2.81 | 2.80 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 13.6 | 20.3 | 173.1 | 12 | 9 | 28.6% | 9.9% | 3.43 | 3.36 | 3.3 | 3.0 | 53.3 | 75.3 |
| 7 | Sonny Gray | 23.0 | 3 | 1 | 36.0% | 4.5% | 1.17 | 1.45 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 14.8 | 22.6 | 165.0 | 12 | 7 | 24.8% | 7.0% | 3.16 | 3.33 | 3.3 | 3.6 | 53.5 | 74.9 |
| 8 | Ranger Suárez | 41.0 | 5 | 0 | 27.8% | 3.5% | 1.32 | 2.58 | 1.3 | 2.4 | 23.5 | 32.3 | 174.0 | 13 | 7 | 22.4% | 7.0% | 3.21 | 3.53 | 3.3 | 4.6 | 53.9 | 72.7 |
| 9 | Max Fried | 31.0 | 2 | 0 | 19.4% | 8.5% | 4.05 | 3.52 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 6.1 | 9.4 | 176.0 | 13 | 6 | 21.7% | 6.9% | 3.53 | 3.40 | 3.0 | 3.5 | 48.1 | 69.6 |
| 10 | Chris Sale | 36.1 | 4 | 1 | 29.0% | 4.8% | 3.48 | 3.00 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 12.3 | 18.3 | 159.1 | 13 | 6 | 29.2% | 6.3% | 3.56 | 3.33 | 3.1 | 3.3 | 48.7 | 69.4 |
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season Stats | Projected Stats | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
| 1 | Zack Wheeler | 42.0 | 3 | 3 | 30.6% | 7.1% | 1.92 | 2.59 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 20.2 | 29.2 | 199.0 | 14 | 10 | 26.2% | 6.5% | 3.12 | 3.16 | 5.1 | 4.9 | 65.9 | 95.5 |
| 2 | Logan Webb | 42.0 | 3 | 2 | 17.1% | 5.7% | 2.99 | 2.80 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 13.0 | 21.0 | 205.0 | 14 | 10 | 19.8% | 5.4% | 3.33 | 3.15 | 3.8 | 4.2 | 57.4 | 88.2 |
| 3 | Tyler Glasnow | 43.0 | 5 | 1 | 31.5% | 7.1% | 2.72 | 2.72 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 18.8 | 27.3 | 168.0 | 15 | 6 | 31.1% | 7.5% | 3.21 | 3.11 | 3.8 | 4.0 | 60.2 | 86.2 |
| 4 | Shota Imanaga | 34.1 | 5 | 0 | 26.5% | 3.0% | 0.79 | 2.20 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 22.6 | 31.3 | 171.1 | 14 | 7 | 25.5% | 5.7% | 3.05 | 3.20 | 3.9 | 4.5 | 59.5 | 84.2 |
| 5 | Yoshinobu Yamamoto | 34.0 | 3 | 1 | 30.0% | 5.7% | 2.91 | 2.61 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 13.2 | 20.3 | 176.0 | 14 | 7 | 27.0% | 5.9% | 3.48 | 3.31 | 3.6 | 3.3 | 53.3 | 76.5 |
| 6 | Dylan Cease | 35.1 | 3 | 2 | 28.8% | 10.1% | 2.81 | 2.80 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 13.6 | 20.3 | 173.1 | 12 | 9 | 28.6% | 9.9% | 3.43 | 3.36 | 3.3 | 3.0 | 53.3 | 75.3 |
| 7 | Sonny Gray | 23.0 | 3 | 1 | 36.0% | 4.5% | 1.17 | 1.45 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 14.8 | 22.6 | 165.0 | 12 | 7 | 24.8% | 7.0% | 3.16 | 3.33 | 3.3 | 3.6 | 53.5 | 74.9 |
| 8 | Ranger Suárez | 41.0 | 5 | 0 | 27.8% | 3.5% | 1.32 | 2.58 | 1.3 | 2.4 | 23.5 | 32.3 | 174.0 | 13 | 7 | 22.4% | 7.0% | 3.21 | 3.53 | 3.3 | 4.6 | 53.9 | 72.7 |
| 9 | Max Fried | 31.0 | 2 | 0 | 19.4% | 8.5% | 4.05 | 3.52 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 6.1 | 9.4 | 176.0 | 13 | 6 | 21.7% | 6.9% | 3.53 | 3.40 | 3.0 | 3.5 | 48.1 | 69.6 |
| 10 | Chris Sale | 36.1 | 4 | 1 | 29.0% | 4.8% | 3.48 | 3.00 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 12.3 | 18.3 | 159.1 | 13 | 6 | 29.2% | 6.3% | 3.56 | 3.33 | 3.1 | 3.3 | 48.7 | 69.4 |
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