Cy Young Award Projections
Projection System
About the Cy Young Award Projections:
These Cy Young Award Projections utilize a simple model created by Tangotiger. The original Cy Young Points model predicts the top two vote getters with high accuracy through 2020. The FIP Adjusted model may be a better predictor of more recent voting behavior. (The report is limited to pitchers with at least 50 projected IP.)
- Cy Young Points (CYP): IP/2 - ER + SO/10 + W
- FIP Adjusted Cy Young Points (FIP CYP): (IP/2 - ER) + (IP/2 - FIP Runs) + SO/10 + W
Data Export [Members Only]
American League
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season Stats | Projected Stats | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
| 1 | Tarik Skubal | 49.0 | 5 | 0 | 31.6% | 4.2% | 2.02 | 2.01 | 24.5 | 38.0 | 169.0 | 13 | 7 | 29.3% | 5.9% | 3.04 | 2.80 | 2.7 | 2.2 | 60.3 | 92.2 | ||
| 2 | Luis Castillo | 54.0 | 4 | 5 | 29.0% | 5.0% | 3.33 | 3.04 | 17.4 | 26.2 | 201.0 | 14 | 12 | 26.8% | 6.7% | 3.49 | 3.37 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 58.5 | 83.7 | ||
| 3 | Corbin Burnes | 53.1 | 3 | 2 | 23.3% | 6.7% | 2.71 | 3.53 | 18.5 | 24.2 | 202.1 | 12 | 9 | 25.6% | 7.2% | 3.34 | 3.50 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 59.1 | 81.7 | ||
| 4 | Pablo López | 50.0 | 4 | 3 | 28.7% | 4.0% | 3.95 | 3.16 | 12.8 | 20.3 | 197.0 | 14 | 10 | 27.5% | 5.8% | 3.65 | 3.29 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 54.6 | 81.1 | ||
| 5 | George Kirby | 50.0 | 4 | 3 | 25.1% | 2.5% | 3.59 | 2.86 | 14.1 | 23.3 | 193.0 | 14 | 10 | 23.9% | 3.3% | 3.59 | 3.20 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 52.1 | 80.1 | ||
| 6 | Framber Valdez | 36.1 | 3 | 1 | 21.2% | 7.5% | 2.98 | 3.28 | 12.2 | 17.1 | 173.1 | 13 | 7 | 23.4% | 7.8% | 3.33 | 3.37 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 52.4 | 74.2 | ||
| 7 | Kevin Gausman | 36.0 | 2 | 3 | 22.6% | 6.1% | 4.99 | 3.78 | 3.7 | 6.6 | 180.0 | 12 | 10 | 27.4% | 6.4% | 3.75 | 3.22 | 3.3 | 2.6 | 47.5 | 73.1 | ||
| 8 | Logan Gilbert | 58.1 | 3 | 2 | 27.4% | 8.1% | 3.09 | 3.51 | 18.2 | 24.6 | 199.1 | 12 | 9 | 25.3% | 6.3% | 3.61 | 3.66 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 51.8 | 70.3 | ||
| 9 | Zach Eflin | 53.0 | 3 | 4 | 18.6% | 1.8% | 3.91 | 3.81 | 10.6 | 14.6 | 184.0 | 12 | 11 | 22.5% | 3.6% | 3.72 | 3.50 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 44.9 | 65.4 | ||
| 10 | Tanner Houck | 58.0 | 3 | 5 | 24.3% | 4.7% | 2.17 | 2.20 | 23.7 | 38.5 | 169.0 | 10 | 12 | 22.6% | 7.2% | 3.51 | 3.42 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 44.5 | 64.8 | ||
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season Stats | Projected Stats | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
| 1 | Tarik Skubal | 49.0 | 5 | 0 | 31.6% | 4.2% | 2.02 | 2.01 | 24.5 | 38.0 | 169.0 | 13 | 7 | 29.3% | 5.9% | 3.04 | 2.80 | 2.7 | 2.2 | 60.3 | 92.2 | ||
| 2 | Luis Castillo | 54.0 | 4 | 5 | 29.0% | 5.0% | 3.33 | 3.04 | 17.4 | 26.2 | 201.0 | 14 | 12 | 26.8% | 6.7% | 3.49 | 3.37 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 58.5 | 83.7 | ||
| 3 | Corbin Burnes | 53.1 | 3 | 2 | 23.3% | 6.7% | 2.71 | 3.53 | 18.5 | 24.2 | 202.1 | 12 | 9 | 25.6% | 7.2% | 3.34 | 3.50 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 59.1 | 81.7 | ||
| 4 | Pablo López | 50.0 | 4 | 3 | 28.7% | 4.0% | 3.95 | 3.16 | 12.8 | 20.3 | 197.0 | 14 | 10 | 27.5% | 5.8% | 3.65 | 3.29 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 54.6 | 81.1 | ||
| 5 | George Kirby | 50.0 | 4 | 3 | 25.1% | 2.5% | 3.59 | 2.86 | 14.1 | 23.3 | 193.0 | 14 | 10 | 23.9% | 3.3% | 3.59 | 3.20 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 52.1 | 80.1 | ||
| 6 | Framber Valdez | 36.1 | 3 | 1 | 21.2% | 7.5% | 2.98 | 3.28 | 12.2 | 17.1 | 173.1 | 13 | 7 | 23.4% | 7.8% | 3.33 | 3.37 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 52.4 | 74.2 | ||
| 7 | Kevin Gausman | 36.0 | 2 | 3 | 22.6% | 6.1% | 4.99 | 3.78 | 3.7 | 6.6 | 180.0 | 12 | 10 | 27.4% | 6.4% | 3.75 | 3.22 | 3.3 | 2.6 | 47.5 | 73.1 | ||
| 8 | Logan Gilbert | 58.1 | 3 | 2 | 27.4% | 8.1% | 3.09 | 3.51 | 18.2 | 24.6 | 199.1 | 12 | 9 | 25.3% | 6.3% | 3.61 | 3.66 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 51.8 | 70.3 | ||
| 9 | Zach Eflin | 53.0 | 3 | 4 | 18.6% | 1.8% | 3.91 | 3.81 | 10.6 | 14.6 | 184.0 | 12 | 11 | 22.5% | 3.6% | 3.72 | 3.50 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 44.9 | 65.4 | ||
| 10 | Tanner Houck | 58.0 | 3 | 5 | 24.3% | 4.7% | 2.17 | 2.20 | 23.7 | 38.5 | 169.0 | 10 | 12 | 22.6% | 7.2% | 3.51 | 3.42 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 44.5 | 64.8 | ||
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National League
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season Stats | Projected Stats | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
| 1 | Zack Wheeler | 53.0 | 4 | 3 | 30.0% | 7.4% | 2.54 | 2.72 | 22.0 | 32.6 | 200.0 | 14 | 10 | 26.8% | 6.3% | 3.24 | 3.14 | 3.4 | 2.9 | 63.8 | 94.2 | ||
| 2 | Logan Webb | 59.0 | 4 | 4 | 18.7% | 6.8% | 3.05 | 2.93 | 18.2 | 28.6 | 209.0 | 13 | 12 | 20.9% | 5.7% | 3.31 | 3.07 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 58.6 | 91.8 | ||
| 3 | Tyler Glasnow | 62.0 | 6 | 2 | 33.8% | 6.7% | 2.90 | 2.53 | 25.1 | 38.6 | 176.0 | 15 | 7 | 32.2% | 7.4% | 3.27 | 3.03 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 61.5 | 90.2 | ||
| 4 | Dylan Cease | 55.0 | 5 | 3 | 32.7% | 8.2% | 2.45 | 2.33 | 24.3 | 37.5 | 181.0 | 13 | 9 | 29.1% | 9.5% | 3.43 | 3.36 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 56.0 | 78.8 | ||
| 5 | Ranger Suárez | 59.0 | 8 | 0 | 26.5% | 4.6% | 1.37 | 2.69 | 34.3 | 46.2 | 175.0 | 15 | 6 | 22.6% | 7.3% | 3.14 | 3.48 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 57.6 | 77.5 | ||
| 6 | Shota Imanaga | 46.1 | 5 | 0 | 27.9% | 4.4% | 0.97 | 2.27 | 28.2 | 39.6 | 168.1 | 12 | 6 | 25.3% | 6.3% | 3.05 | 3.43 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 56.5 | 76.5 | ||
| 7 | Aaron Nola | 58.0 | 5 | 2 | 23.7% | 6.5% | 3.10 | 3.56 | 19.5 | 25.5 | 205.0 | 15 | 9 | 25.3% | 5.7% | 3.69 | 3.55 | 2.9 | 2.2 | 54.4 | 76.1 | ||
| 8 | Chris Sale | 49.1 | 6 | 1 | 31.3% | 4.1% | 2.56 | 2.42 | 22.7 | 34.0 | 161.1 | 14 | 7 | 29.5% | 6.1% | 3.41 | 3.22 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 52.9 | 75.8 | ||
| 9 | Yoshinobu Yamamoto | 47.1 | 4 | 1 | 27.5% | 5.2% | 3.24 | 3.22 | 15.9 | 22.6 | 177.1 | 14 | 7 | 26.6% | 6.2% | 3.56 | 3.35 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 51.8 | 74.4 | ||
| 10 | Zac Gallen | 44.0 | 5 | 2 | 25.3% | 7.9% | 2.86 | 3.57 | 17.5 | 22.0 | 183.0 | 14 | 8 | 25.1% | 6.9% | 3.49 | 3.52 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 53.3 | 73.2 | ||
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season Stats | Projected Stats | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
| 1 | Zack Wheeler | 53.0 | 4 | 3 | 30.0% | 7.4% | 2.54 | 2.72 | 22.0 | 32.6 | 200.0 | 14 | 10 | 26.8% | 6.3% | 3.24 | 3.14 | 3.4 | 2.9 | 63.8 | 94.2 | ||
| 2 | Logan Webb | 59.0 | 4 | 4 | 18.7% | 6.8% | 3.05 | 2.93 | 18.2 | 28.6 | 209.0 | 13 | 12 | 20.9% | 5.7% | 3.31 | 3.07 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 58.6 | 91.8 | ||
| 3 | Tyler Glasnow | 62.0 | 6 | 2 | 33.8% | 6.7% | 2.90 | 2.53 | 25.1 | 38.6 | 176.0 | 15 | 7 | 32.2% | 7.4% | 3.27 | 3.03 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 61.5 | 90.2 | ||
| 4 | Dylan Cease | 55.0 | 5 | 3 | 32.7% | 8.2% | 2.45 | 2.33 | 24.3 | 37.5 | 181.0 | 13 | 9 | 29.1% | 9.5% | 3.43 | 3.36 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 56.0 | 78.8 | ||
| 5 | Ranger Suárez | 59.0 | 8 | 0 | 26.5% | 4.6% | 1.37 | 2.69 | 34.3 | 46.2 | 175.0 | 15 | 6 | 22.6% | 7.3% | 3.14 | 3.48 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 57.6 | 77.5 | ||
| 6 | Shota Imanaga | 46.1 | 5 | 0 | 27.9% | 4.4% | 0.97 | 2.27 | 28.2 | 39.6 | 168.1 | 12 | 6 | 25.3% | 6.3% | 3.05 | 3.43 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 56.5 | 76.5 | ||
| 7 | Aaron Nola | 58.0 | 5 | 2 | 23.7% | 6.5% | 3.10 | 3.56 | 19.5 | 25.5 | 205.0 | 15 | 9 | 25.3% | 5.7% | 3.69 | 3.55 | 2.9 | 2.2 | 54.4 | 76.1 | ||
| 8 | Chris Sale | 49.1 | 6 | 1 | 31.3% | 4.1% | 2.56 | 2.42 | 22.7 | 34.0 | 161.1 | 14 | 7 | 29.5% | 6.1% | 3.41 | 3.22 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 52.9 | 75.8 | ||
| 9 | Yoshinobu Yamamoto | 47.1 | 4 | 1 | 27.5% | 5.2% | 3.24 | 3.22 | 15.9 | 22.6 | 177.1 | 14 | 7 | 26.6% | 6.2% | 3.56 | 3.35 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 51.8 | 74.4 | ||
| 10 | Zac Gallen | 44.0 | 5 | 2 | 25.3% | 7.9% | 2.86 | 3.57 | 17.5 | 22.0 | 183.0 | 14 | 8 | 25.1% | 6.9% | 3.49 | 3.52 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 53.3 | 73.2 | ||
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